Another year, another FPL season. The game officially launched to much ado earlier this afternoon. Normally, this would spark 6 weeks of debate in the dark corner of the internet commonly known as FPL Twitter. However, this year, thanks to generous pricing, most people have been able to put together a team filled with top-6 stars and still have change left over, creating a weirdly calm atmosphere.
I thought it would be a good idea to look at the Chelsea squad from an FPL lens to provide thoughts on where I think the value could be, what I would expect to see in terms of the tactical setup, and crucially, who the key assets will be from an FPL standpoint.
Tactical Setup
The formation Chelsea will use next season has been the source of much debate already. I will prefix this by saying that the squad clearly still needs some additions. I put together a quick depth chart to illustrate this.
This chart includes 26 players, which should be more than enough on the face of it. Players that are highlighted in yellow are new additions I expect to come in before the end of the transfer window. Players highlighted in grey (in my opinion) could either be sold (Chalobah) or loaned out (Maatsen/Santos). If Chalobah leaves, I expect he’d be replaced because of Pochettino’s desire to have 5 CBs to work with. So, if we assume the other two players leave on loan, that leaves us with a squad of 24, so we’d assume either one more depth player will be brought in or a youth player will join the first team squad to make 25.
In terms of formation, I think there are two likely options. The first option is a 4-2-3-1 shape; most people assume this will be the case because Pochettino favoured a 4-2-3-1 shape at Tottenham, although he also experimented with 3ATB and hybrid systems later in his tenure. The other option is to use a 3-4-3 shape as favoured by Tuchel and also employed at times by Potter and Lampard. Formations in football are more fluid than ever, so it’s important to note that even if we set up in that shape, it doesn’t necessarily mean we’d play in the same way, either in or out of possession.
Let’s look at the likely starting XIs of those two systems. I’ve made the assumption Chelsea will sign Caicedo, which looks likely, but if that doesn’t happen a player of a similar profile will surely come in to partner Enzo in midfield.
As you can see, these two systems actually look pretty similar in terms of personnel. The only difference is that the 3-4-3 would be a more fluid system where Nkunku would need to essentially perform 2 roles, creator and scorer, and the extra defensive security would allow James and Chilwell license to bomb forward as we’ve seen them do so effectively in the past.
The decision of how to play will be made up of a few factors – will Chelsea bring in a big-name striker? Will Jackson adapt quicker than expected? How ready is Colwill to play regularly? (Spoiler: he’s very ready.)
Pricing and Value
I decided the best way to do this is just to go through each player and give them a value rating (💵) representing their value for money, and a spiciness (🌶️) rating based on how exciting I think they are as a pick. I’ve focused mainly on players I think are FPL relevant, so if a player isn’t here, it’s because I don’t think they’ll get enough gametime to be worth discussing.
Goalkeepers
Kepa Arrizabalaga – 5.0
Kepa provided to be a bit of a sleeper hit towards the end of last season, as he became both the most reliable and the cheapest Chelsea defensive asset who regularly started. Chelsea, despite having a banter season to rival Arsenal’s finest work, were actually quietly pretty decent in defence under Graham Potter. Although they conceded 52.5 xG in total (10th best), almost 10% of this was racked up in one frankly embarrassing game under Lampard towards the back end of the season (a 4-1 defeat away at Old Trafford).
This season, the defence is firmly in the ‘wait and see’ category for me, but unfortunately, Kepa finds himself in a tough price spot this season. He’s 0.5 cheaper than James and Chilwell, who are absolute monsters in attack, and 0.5 more expensive than Colwill, Badiashile and Fofana. I’d expect at least one of those players to become a standout 4.5 this season.
Value Rating 💵: 3/5
Spiciness Rating 🌶️: 1/5 (there’s nothing fun about a 5.0 GK)
Defenders
Reece James – 5.5
Let’s not beat around the bush, Reece James has the highest ceiling of any defender in the game not named Trent Alexander Arnold. He’s also 2.5 cheaper, which is frankly a ridiculous pricing decision. The elephant in the room is his injury history, which has been a huge problem over the past season. The way Chelsea have mismanaged injuries and player fitness over the past 2 seasons has been amateurish, and I’m sure one of Pochettino’s top priorities will be to sort this out. Poch has worked with the same conditioning coach, assistant manager Jesus Perez for pretty much his whole career. I’m confident with a proper pre-season and a fresh set of eyes in the fitness department, it’ll be possible to see James on the pitch regularly next season. It’s also worth mentioning that Chelsea will have a greatly reduced schedule thanks to not having European football. He could be FPL gold next season, the hope is that many people feel burned by him and are too scared to go back.
Value Rating 💵: 5/5
Spiciness Rating 🌶️: 5/5
Malo Gusto – 4.0
In an alternate world where Reece James unfortunately suffers another hamstring injury, Malo Gusto could easily become the best value player in the game. With Cesar Azpilicueta widely expected to leave for Inter Milan Atletico Madrid imminently, Gusto would be the only cover in the RB/RWB position. Chalobah and Fofana could both fill in here, but both are better at CB. Gusto is a high-potential French defender who has very decent xA numbers from his time at Lyon. At the moment, he’s not a viable pick. But he’s one injury away from being a potentially excellent pick.
Value Rating 💵: 5/5
Spiciness Rating 🌶️: 3/5
Ben Chilwell – 5.5
I fully expect Chilwell and James to be a source of constant annoyance for FPL managers next season. It’s inevitable that we’ll see a week where one of them gets multiple attacking returns and the other walks away empty handed. Chilwell becomes especially interesting in a 3ATB system, he excels at getting into goalscoring positions from the LWB position. As a LB, he’s a little more reserved, and while he’s still interesting, he may face more competition from both Lewis Hall and Cucurella in a 4ATB system. Overall, a great pick, but James is clearly above him for me, right now.
Value Rating 💵: 5/5
Spiciness Rating 🌶️: 3/5
Wesley Fofana, Benoit Badiashile, Levi Colwill – 4.5
I’ve grouped these guys together because I’d basically be saying the same thing about all of them. I believe at least one of them will turn out to be excellent value at 4.5, but we first need to see who Pochettino favours in the defence. Out of the 3, Badiashile is probably the one I’d be most interested in from an FPL POV, mainly because he looks a big threat at corners with his height and a knack for getting into good positions. I also think all 3 CBs will profile well on BPS since they all have good passing and are relatively calm players who will not pick up too many yellows.
I should mention that I did not include Thiago Silva here, the main reasons are that I’d expect him to see less gametime next season, and at 5.0 I don’t believe he is viable.
Value Rating 💵: 4/5
Spiciness Rating 🌶️: 2/5
Midfielders
Mykhailo Mudryk – 6.5
Mudryk failed to immediately hit the ground running last season, due to a combination of a lack of fitness after months of not playing due to winter break of the Ukrainian league, and a crisis of confidence after being pulled into the vortex of chaos that was Chelsea last season. I expect Pochettino will look forward to working with Mudryk, who still remains a massively exciting prospect. He chose to play for Ukraine U21s this summer at the Euros, and has impressed, grabbing a wonderful assist against France U21s.
On the other hand, I feel that Pochettino will take a cautious approach with Mudryk, slowly integrating him into the team. I think he will lean heavily on Sterling (more on him later!) because of his experience early on, meaning Mudryk may find minutes hard to come by initially. At an attractive 6.5 price-point however, I think his time will come.
Value Rating 💵: 3/5
Spiciness Rating 🌶️: 4/5
Noni Madueke – 5.5
Madueke found his feet towards the end of last season, earning a run in the team and generally being a bright spark in a truly terrible team. At 5.5, he’s potentially excellent value. However, I have concerns about whether he starts every game – we could easily see Mudryk start on the left and Sterling or Nkunku shifted to the right to accommodate this change. He’s another that falls into the ‘wait-and-see’ category. I’d also like to see him be a little more decisive in front of goal, I’m sure this will come with age, but his game is missing a bit of killer instinct right now.
Value Rating 💵: 3/5
Spiciness Rating 🌶️: 3/5
Enzo Fernandez – 5.0
Enzo is a truly fantastic footballer, and I firmly believe he will be Chelsea’s most important player next season. However, sadly this does not make him a good FPL pick. His role is mainly a conductor and ball progressor. Last season, he often played as the deepest midfielder, mainly out of necessity. The signing of Caicedo (or a similar player) should allow us to see the best of Enzo next season. We know he’s got a great shot in his locker and can pick out an assist, but sadly I don’t think he’ll be FPL-relevant. I will say though, if he’s on penalties, I could see myself going there for a double gameweek.
Value Rating 💵: 3/5
Spiciness Rating 🌶️: 1/5
Raheem Sterling – 7.0
Sterling endured a tough season last year, struggling with injuries and not really being allowed to develop a natural role in the team. His versatility worked against him, as he was continually being shifted around the pitch to try and find a system that worked. He showed flashes of promise early on, with a brace against Leicester, and played a crucial role in Chelsea’s best match of the season, the 2-0 win against Dortmund in the Champions League R16.
This season will be a fresh start for everyone. I firmly believe Sterling has a set of skills that very few players in the world have, his ability to link up in the box and arrive at the right time is incredible. If he comes into next season fit and motivated, he will make a mockery of his price.
I went into last season starting GW1 with Marcus Rashford because I believed FPL had badly mispriced him. He ended up being one of the runaway success stories of the season. Barring a serious change, I will start GW1 with Sterling in my team.
Value Rating 💵: 5/5
Spiciness Rating 🌶️: 4/5
Forwards
Christopher Nkunku – 7.5
Nkunku comes to Chelsea with a big price tag and even bigger expectations. He hopes to succeed where both Timo Werner and Kai Havertz didn’t quite succeed in translating his exceptional Bundesliga performances to the Premier League. If he succeeds, the 7.5 price tag given by FPL will feel very silly indeed.
I still have a few open questions about how Nkunku will translate to the league. The expectation is that he’ll play as a 10 or second striker, and it’s slightly unfortunate he’s been positioned as a forward by FPL (although he can definitely play as a striker). I want to see his role in the team, and whether he is on penalties before I feel confident in taking the plunge. I’ve been burned in the past by getting too excited too quickly about new signings to the league. But on the other hand, his potential is up there with pretty much anyone in the league apart from Kane and Haaland.
Value Rating 💵: 5/5
Spiciness Rating 🌶️: 5/5
Nicholas Jackson – 7.0
Nicholas Jackson arrives from Villarreal off the back of a hot streak of goalscoring that caught the attention of Europe’s big clubs. He’s a fascinating player who was originally a winger but has been converted into a striker. In terms of playstyle, he’s very much a ‘mobile 9’, good at attacking the channels and making runs in behind the defence. His closest comparison in the Premier League in terms of style is probably Marcus Rashford.
While he’s likely going to be a little raw, he’s hopefully the kind of player Pochettino will love working with. I don’t anticipate him to be FPL-viable initially, but it’s worth monitoring him. If Chelsea don’t bring in another forward player, and he hits the ground running, he could be a very interesting pick.
Value Rating 💵: 3/5
Spiciness Rating 🌶️: 4/5
The Verdict
So, should you be excited about Chelsea this season? I firmly believe the answer to that question is yes. If I had to pick only 3 players for FPL purposes, I’d go for James, Sterling and Nkunku. However, I believe that there are at least 5 players who are viable, and a few more that could become very exciting options under the right circumstances.
After a difficult start at home to Liverpool. in GW1, Chelsea have a favourable run of fixtures up until around GW10, and a pretty nice run-in from GW30 onwards. Write them off at your peril.
High Press 